As we move into yearend, we have every reason to believe that the economy has slowed and inflation, while still above target, has dropped significantly. But slower inflation does not mean falling prices in most markets. Yes, gasoline prices are down, and food inflation has slowed, but the purchasing power of households has not improved.

Consumer confidence is down as many households fear their mortgage renewals, where rising monthly payments will dig even deeper into their discretionary income.

Mortgage arrears are still at historical lows, but credit card and auto loan delinquencies are rising. Housing markets have slowed considerably, even as lenders cut their fixed mortgage loan rates. Declines in variable-rate loans generally await an easing in monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, which is still likely at least six months away.

The good news is that interest rates have likely peaked. So far, the economy is on a glide path for a ‘softish’ landing. I doubt we will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth. And, if we do, the central bank will respond sooner with rate cuts.

The fiscal authorities' hands are tied. Many accuse Ottawa of increasing budgetary red ink too quickly over the past eight years, especially during the pandemic. Now that market-determined interest rates have risen sharply, the debt financing costs are spiking. The Liberals’ popularity is waning, and while business is calling for investment tax credits and everyone wants more affordable housing, the feds can only marginally affect these issues, given budgetary and political constraints.

The latest gimmick is to reduce short-term rentals by restricting Airbnb properties in some ways, but that will again have a meagre impact. Encouraging construction with GST elimination and cheaper credit is helpful. Still, even if they do lead to 30,000 new rental properties, that’s a drop in the bucket when planned permanent immigration is slated for 500,000 people per year.

The real rebound in economic activity is coming when the BoC signals it will cut the overnight policy rate. In the meantime, it is now a buyers’ market in many localities as home prices decline. The spring housing market could show a meaningful pickup in anticipation of lower rates and more housing supply. Motivated sellers will be out there, and buyers can pre-approve and take their time finding the right fit. The multiple-bidding wars are over. The housing market will lead the economy upward next year.

Our owner, Cameron Mackie, is in an article in the National Mortgage Professional giving his insights on insurance in Florida. Read for a snippet and then click below for the full article!

Florida’s affordability crisis is escalating, and mortgage loan originators in the state find themselves in a battle against high interest rates, home prices, and homeowners’ insurance premiums, which are nearly triple the national average and are busting borrowers’ budgets.

The challenges, while new, will worsen, says Cameron Mackie, owner and originator at Rateplicity Mortgage Corporation in Naples, who began to observe the impact of elevated insurance costs on originations as far back as three years ago.

“My question is: Are costs ever going to go down?” he asks. “We’re in a peak of inflation and when things normalize, I just see it as they’re going to continue to stabilize and give some excuse that they’re never going to bring it back down. It’s just something we have to really adjust … and prepare for the future.”

The Canadian economy is showing continued signs of slowing as inflation decelerates. This opens the  door for a continued pause in rate hikes. Indeed, with any luck, the Bank might have finished its tightening cycle.

One more rate hike is possible, especially if continued Middle East tensions lead to a sustained oil price increase, but the odds are against it.

This does not suggest, however, that interest rates will decline anytime soon. Headline inflation in September was posted at a 3.8% year-over-year pace, well above the Bank’s 2% target. Wage inflation remains at roughly 5%, and inflation expectations remain high.

However, the economy is slowing, and excess demand in labour markets is waning. Third-quarter economic growth is likely to be less than 0.5%, and leading economic indicators are pointing to a further slowdown in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2024.

Canadian consumers, weighed down by record debt loads and high prices, are tightening their purse strings. Savings rates have fallen, and retail sales per capita have slowed markedly. Sales were down in six subsectors: car dealers, furniture, electronics, and appliance retailers.

Canadians are quickly rolling back their purchases of goods as more households face mortgage payment renewals. The Bank of Canada consumer survey suggested that families expect more adverse effects ahead as an increasing volume of mortgages come due for renewal or refinancing.

Businesses are also tightening their belts as the recent Bank of Canada Business Outlook survey showed considerable weakness. The Bank is counting on softening demand to translate into a slower inflation rate in the coming months.

I expect the central bank to cut interest rates in mid-2024, gradually taking the overnight policy rate down. In the meantime, housing markets will continue seeing a surge in new listings and more favourable buying opportunities.

We Canadians are no strangers to the chill of the winter season!

As we shift into the final few months of 2023, now is a great time to check your home before the cold front hits. Below I have included a few tips that could help you save on bills, prevent future repair costs, and be more comfortable all winter long.

• Inspect Your Fireplace: There is no better time than now to have your fireplace inspected to ensure optimal efficiency and heat output. Whether you have a wood-burning, gas, or electrical fireplace, proper maintenance can go a long way for your heating bill!
• Maintain Your Furnace: While you're having your fireplace inspected, don't forget to maintain your furnace! If your furnace is getting up there in age, you may want to also consider replacing it as typically newer furnaces are more efficient than the previous generation, which could help save on energy costs. Either way, ensuring your furnace is in working order will guarantee top output and a cozy winter!
• Clean The Gutters:The last thing you want is your gutters to be clogged when the snow hits! Cleaning your gutters from Fall leaves and other debris will help ensure proper drainage for melting snow. For those who want to go the extra step, consider gutter guards which can help keep out unwanted objects from your gutters.
• Examine Your Roof:While you’re prepping your gutters for the winter, it is a good idea to also examine your roof. A few things to look for include broken or missing shingles, damaged flashing, staining from water leakage, and ventilation.
• Consider a Programmable Thermostat:According to experts, a degree drop in your home temperature can measure up to 1% on your heating bill. For those of us who don't like to have cold feet all season, smart thermostats are a great way to keep warm and optimize your energy savings! Ideally, you want to set your thermostat to turn on in the morning, off when you go to work, and back on in the evening to ensure a toasty welcome.
• Insulate Windows: Always be sure to check your windows for any gaps or water leakage and get them resealed as soon as possible. If you live in a particularly cold location, consider swapping out your windows to double-paned glass for an added layer of insulation. Another tip to keep the cold from seeping in through your windows is swapping out your curtains for a heavier, thermal-lined set which can do wonders!
• Check Your Pipes:Checking pipe joints for leaks that could cause rot and damage will save you trouble in the future. Repair any cracks you find, especially those around electrical outlets and alarm system lines. You can also consider foam pipe insulation, which is fairly easy to install and could help prevent energy loss and potential water damage from frozen pipes.
• Stock Up on Supplies: There are a few things you might want to consider stocking up on ahead of time for the winter season, such as flashlights and batteries, ice melt, extra pet food and canned goods, and an emergency storm kit that includes an extra flashlight, candles, portable radio, water, and snacks.

With a little preparation, you can keep your home in good shape without needing to feel the cold bite of winter!