The 2024-2026 mortgage renewals "cliff" is manageable as long as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates and the job market and economy don't weaken too much. Owing to the 75 basis point rate decline through September and the 50 bps cut in October, not all mortgages will renew at higher rates next year.

Royal Bank economists estimate that total mortgage payments in 2025 will increase by about 0.1% of total household disposable income as many extend amortizations to keep payments low.

The jobless rate, though declining a tick in September to 6.5%, is meaningfully higher than before the pandemic and is likely to rise to 7% next year.

The total number of job openings in the economy is 25% below what it was a year ago, and if it were to weaken further, the unemployment rate would rise even more.

Earlier this cycle, there were more job vacancies than people looking for work, so the drop in job openings didn't have a material impact on the economy. But that's no longer the case. September's inflation data confirms that the job market trend is downward.

Economic growth has been below potential since 2022, and preliminary third-quarter data indicate another slowdown to about 1.3% growth in Q3, well below the BoC's initial forecast. Hiring intentions remain woefully inadequate in the face of staggering population growth.

Business start-ups are also sluggish, reflecting a business climate undermined by overly restrictive monetary policy.

The BoC must now aggressively cut interest rates. Monetary policy remains highly restrictive.

The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey shows no sign of stabilization in the short term. Indeed, hiring intentions were virtually unchanged in Q3 and remained below the historical average. A significant number of companies are overstaffed.

The latest data show that the private sector vacancy rate is plummeting and has reached its lowest level since 2016. More than half of all small- and medium-sized businesses are fearful of weakening demand for their goods and services.

The number of active companies fell sharply in the second quarter due to a sharp jump in business closures and a low number of start-ups. The stagnation in the number of active companies in Canada since 2022 is undoubtedly one consequence of the extremely powerful tightening of monetary policy.

Two significant developments in September will have a lasting positive impact on Canadian housing activity. First were Ottawa’s measures to make housing more affordable. Second was the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut.

Ottawa has come under increasing pressure to reduce immigration, build more housing, and help first-time homebuyers afford to buy a home. In response, the federal government increased the home price cap for insured mortgages from $1 million to $1.5 million. This is the first time the home value limit has been raised since 2012.

This will allow many more home purchasers to buy with a smaller down payment (10% rather than 20%) and 30-year amortizations (up from 25 years for non-insured mortgages).

• A $1.5 million home will now require a $125,000 down payment (8.33%). That's less than half the current $300,000 required ante (assuming the feds keep the minimum down payment tiers the same)
• The maximum insurance premium on a $1.5 million purchase with 30-year amortization will now be $57,750 (again, assuming 10% down on any purchase price portion over $500,000).

This will significantly impact high-cost real estate markets such as Vancouver and Toronto, where the selling prices average $1.1 million in Toronto and $1.2 million in Vancouver. In addition, all insured new-build buyers can get 30-year amortizations, not just first-time buyers.

With mortgage rates falling rapidly, these measures will accelerate the growth in housing demand.

Also, the good news was the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis point rate cut, the first such cut in this cycle. Fifty is double the usual policy change increment. Such moves are typically reserved for emergency Fed meetings or clear and present liquidity threats. This opens the door for the Bank of Canada to have a super-sized rate cut in October or December. This bodes well for building home sales going into the all-important spring season.

Inflation has fallen considerably, and the Canadian unemployment rate has risen sharply. While retail sales for July showed a considerable rebound, it was mainly because of a surge in car sales. Nonetheless, spending growth pales in comparison to the population surge.

With the Bank of Canada rate decreases throughout the summer and into September, I thought this would be a great opportunity to update you on what this means for your mortgage.

If you're on an adjustable-rate mortgage, this will result in a slight decrease in your mortgage payments, giving you more cash flow each month!

For example, if your mortgage balance is $750,000 at the previous 6.20% interest rate your approx. compounded monthly payment was likely around $4,924. With the new rate of 5.95% your approx. compounded monthly payment on an adjustable-rate mortgage will be $4,809*. This is an estimated $115/m decrease ($15/m per 100k balance) on your payment. While it may not seem like much, it can certainly add up over time resulting in hundreds of dollars in savings.

*Rates based on example of Prime minus .50% (old prime 6.70 and new prime 6.45)

Borrowers with static-payment variable-rate mortgages will also benefit from Bank of Canada rate decreases. While the monthly payment stays the same on these types of mortgages, the lower interest rate means that more of your monthly payment will go towards paying down your mortgage principal, and less will go towards interest.

Fixed-rate mortgages do not change when the Bank of Canada increases or decreases rates. However, if you have a fixed-rate mortgage, this declining rate environment could make it easier when it comes time to renew or refinance your mortgage. Lower rates give you more borrowing power in the market – this means your money can go further!

Recent changes are also great news for first-time buyers! Not only does a lower interest rate allow for more qualification options and lower payments, but recent Government of Canada changes on mortgage rules have removed many barriers previously faced by first-time home buyers.

The Bank of Canada has two more decision dates this year in October and December. Experts anticipate the Bank of Canada will continue these quarter-point rate cuts, taking the overnight rate down to 4.0% at year-end and potentially down to 2.75% next year.

Whether you’re a current homeowner, looking to refinance or renew, or wanting to purchase, this is exciting news for Canadians across the country!

However, keep in mind rate is not the be-all-end-all of mortgages. Factors such as type of mortgage, down payment amount, payment schedule, amortization, prepayment penalties, and more will also affect your mortgage and affordability.

If you want more information about your specific mortgage and how this changing environment affects your situation, please don't hesitate to reach out!

As the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates, housing activity has remained relatively weak. Existing home sales were well below historical averages in July, while new listings edged upward. Prices have plateaued, and residential mortgage originations are tepid.

Mortgage balances grew by 3% annually in Q2, the second slowest quarterly pace since 2000.

This portends a further dip in household debt-to-income ratios—welcome news, as elevated leverage drives household financial vulnerability. The central bank is widely expected to continue to cut the overnight policy rate at the remaining meetings this year and well into 2025. Monetary policy remains highly restrictive, with the policy rate at 4.5%, well above the 2.5% inflation rate.

We believe interest rates will continue to fall as the overnight rate heads for 2.75%. By later this year, housing activity is likely to pick up gradually.
In the meantime, Canadian homebuilding remains sturdy despite softness in the resale market and ongoing capacity pressures. Housing starts surged again in July. The data series is volatile, but the trend is strong at just under its recent all-time highs posted in 2021. The strength of residential starts has been dominated by multi-unit construction, while single-family starts have historically been very weak.

The home construction sector has suffered ongoing capacity pressures, including a shortage of construction workers, zoning restrictions and supply bottlenecks. These capacity pressures have delayed housing completions, bringing the number of dwellings under construction to fresh record highs.

Homebuilding has remained remarkably resilient, albeit at a much slower pace than the torrid population growth. The government plans to cool the growth in temporary immigration, but the Bank of Canada recently suggested that the slowdown is likely to be delayed and smaller than originally projected.
Meanwhile, Canadian labour markets are easing. Job vacancy rates have plunged, and unemployment has risen, especially for young workers and new immigrants.

Economic growth has slowed to about 1% this year and will pick up only moderately next year. Inflation is falling without a recession. To be sure, some sectors have slowed meaningfully, especially manufacturing. Canadian businesses are bracing for billions of dollars in losses if the country’s two national railways shut down this week.

More than 9,000 workers at Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. could either be on strike or locked out if no labour agreement is reached by Thursday, disrupting the supply chain industries.

Housing markets will begin to recover as lower interest rates do their job this fall.